Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 14 2020 | 1259 | 20176 | 43 | 6 | 377 | 458 |
| September 15 2020 | 1286 | 20231 | 43 | 6 | 381 | 461 |
| September 16 2020 | 1336 | 20533 | 45 | 6 | 395 | 498 |
| September 17 2020 | 1398 | 20641 | 45 | 6 | 421 | 538 |
| September 18 2020 | 1476 | 20972 | 45 | 6 | 476 | 594 |
| September 19 2020 | 1527 | 21008 | 47 | 6 | 490 | 622 |
| September 20 2020 | 1586 | 21014 | 47 | 6 | 526 | 645 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7% | 9 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 15 | 12.3 | 22.1% | 116 | 0.85% | 149 | 1.1% |
| 20-29 | 27 | 26.4 | 57.4% | 302 | 1.44% | 370 | 1.77% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.1 | 5.7% | 30 | 0.22% | 36 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.3 | 4.6% | 24 | 0.23% | 29 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 1.3 | 2.9% | 15 | 0.12% | 19 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.1 | 4.4% | 23 | 0.2% | 23 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 1.3% | 7 | 0.07% | 7 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 59 | 50.6 | 100% | 526 | 0.5% | 645 | 0.62% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 14 2020 | 420 | 13036 | 17 | 0 | 49 | 73 |
| September 15 2020 | 423 | 13084 | 17 | 0 | 47 | 73 |
| September 16 2020 | 434 | 13161 | 17 | 0 | 56 | 80 |
| September 17 2020 | 447 | 13295 | 18 | 0 | 65 | 83 |
| September 18 2020 | 456 | 13383 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 85 |
| September 19 2020 | 466 | 13490 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 90 |
| September 20 2020 | 476 | 13728 | 18 | 0 | 81 | 98 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 14 2020 | 398 | 8017 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| September 15 2020 | 401 | 8142 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| September 16 2020 | 403 | 8206 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| September 17 2020 | 405 | 8249 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 24 |
| September 18 2020 | 407 | 8297 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| September 19 2020 | 411 | 8357 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 26 |
| September 20 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 32 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 14 2020 | 1799 | 22561 | 40 | 2 | 513 | 617 |
| September 15 2020 | 1889 | 22605 | 41 | 2 | 577 | 687 |
| September 16 2020 | 2011 | 23463 | 41 | 2 | 685 | 803 |
| September 17 2020 | 2121 | 23609 | 41 | 2 | 784 | 882 |
| September 18 2020 | 2375 | 23620 | 41 | 2 | 1024 | 1089 |
| September 19 2020 | 2475 | 23739 | 41 | 2 | 1105 | 1163 |
| September 20 2020 | 2568 | 23777 | 41 | 2 | 1123 | 1242 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 31 | 44.4 | 36.7% | 412 | 2.49% | 455 | 2.75% |
| 20-29 | 52 | 56.7 | 50.4% | 566 | 2.66% | 613 | 2.88% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 3.0 | 2.6% | 29 | 0.21% | 34 | 0.25% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 4.0 | 3.1% | 35 | 0.26% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.1 | 2.2% | 25 | 0.18% | 29 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.4 | 2% | 23 | 0.16% | 30 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.3 | 2.7% | 30 | 0.23% | 31 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 93 | 116.3 | 100% | 1123 | 0.95% | 1242 | 1.05% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 14 2020 | 7846 | 174544 | 345 | 41 | 2047 | 2417 |
| September 15 2020 | 7896 | 175620 | 346 | 41 | 1935 | 2376 |
| September 16 2020 | 7984 | 176565 | 347 | 41 | 1866 | 2420 |
| September 17 2020 | 8242 | 179874 | 349 | 41 | 2034 | 2603 |
| September 18 2020 | 8455 | 182213 | 350 | 41 | 2028 | 2656 |
| September 19 2020 | 8635 | 184706 | 350 | 41 | 2146 | 2674 |
| September 20 2020 | 8815 | 186173 | 352 | 41 | 1844 | 2697 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.6 | 1.6% | 30 | 0.05% | 36 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 61 | 69.6 | 46.4% | 856 | 1.2% | 1389 | 1.95% |
| 20-29 | 64 | 59.0 | 33.6% | 620 | 0.6% | 857 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 12.0 | 5.8% | 107 | 0.14% | 143 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 12.1 | 5.7% | 106 | 0.16% | 116 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 8.3 | 3.9% | 71 | 0.11% | 84 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.4 | 1.6% | 30 | 0.05% | 42 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.4 | 1.3% | 24 | 0.05% | 30 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 180 | 170.4 | 100% | 1844 | 0.34% | 2697 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 14 2020 | 89956 | 1273607 | 6350 | 1210 | 10602 | 14353 |
| September 15 2020 | 91304 | 1284525 | 6406 | 1220 | 11004 | 14720 |
| September 16 2020 | 92712 | 1295313 | 6454 | 1228 | 11519 | 15583 |
| September 17 2020 | 94746 | 1304724 | 6522 | 1231 | 12986 | 16890 |
| September 18 2020 | 97279 | 1315258 | 6569 | 1238 | 14802 | 17925 |
| September 19 2020 | 99562 | 1325447 | 6619 | 1241 | 16228 | 19262 |
| September 20 2020 | 101227 | 1332102 | 6653 | 1242 | 16346 | 20034 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 46 | 44.7 | 2.5% | 416 | 0.06% | 495 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 312 | 357.3 | 21.2% | 3466 | 0.46% | 4427 | 0.58% |
| 20-29 | 490 | 491.9 | 29.6% | 4838 | 0.64% | 5871 | 0.78% |
| 30-39 | 187 | 200.3 | 11% | 1798 | 0.24% | 2212 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 181 | 185.6 | 10.5% | 1716 | 0.25% | 2012 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 186 | 200.9 | 11.6% | 1891 | 0.23% | 2304 | 0.28% |
| 60-69 | 144 | 131.3 | 7.5% | 1218 | 0.16% | 1491 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 119 | 108.4 | 6.1% | 1003 | 0.16% | 1222 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 1665 | 1720.3 | 100% | 16346 | 0.28% | 20034 | 0.34% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61.6 | 109.5 | 176.8 | 50.6 | 28.4 | 27.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.2 | 8.3 | 5 | 7.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 5.3% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 274.9 | 288 | 116.3 | 23.1 | 40.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.3 | 195.4 | 82.5 | 170.4 | 132.1 | 9.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.4 | 58.5 | 77.6 | 1720.3 | 886.4 | 16.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-11 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1358"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges